Latest news with #labour market
The Independent
5 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
UK unemployment rises to highest in four years due to slowing wage growth
Britain's unemployment rate has reached its highest level since June 2021, while workers have also faced a significant slowdown in wage growth, official figures reveal. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the UK jobless rate rose to 4.7% in the three months to May, an increase from 4.6% in the preceding three months to April. Concurrently, average earnings growth, excluding bonuses, decelerated to 5% in the period to May, marking its lowest level in almost three years. The figures point towards further pressure in the UK labour market, days after the governor of the Bank of England warned that the Bank is prepared to make larger interest rate cuts if it sees that the job market slowing. It also comes amid a backdrop of recent weakness in the economy, with UK GDP (gross domestic product) shrinking in both April and May. ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: 'The labour market continues to weaken, with the number of employees on payroll falling again, though revised tax data shows the decline in recent months is less pronounced than previously estimated. 'Pay growth fell again in both cash and real terms, but both measures remain relatively strong by historic standards. 'The number of job vacancies is still falling and has now been dropping continuously for three years.' The rise in unemployment is worse than economists had expected, having predicted that the jobless rate would remain at 4.6% for the month. Nevertheless, average wage growth was slightly higher than the 4.9% predicted by economists. But the rate of wage growth was still the weakest figure since the three months to June 2022 and represents a drop from a revised level of 5.3% in the three months to April. Wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, reflecting a rise of 1.8% after taking Consumer Prices Index inflation into account. Pressure in the labour market for the three months to May comes as firms swallowed significant increases in national insurance contributions and the national minimum wage in April. Firms have also been impacted by intensifying economic uncertainty after US President Donald Trump launched a new tariff regime in April, leading to heightened global trade tensions. The figures also showed job vacancies in the UK fell by 56,000 to 727,000 in the three months to June, compared with the previous quarter.
Daily Mail
5 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
The shocking new economic figure Anthony Albanese doesn't want you to see as immigration surges
Australia's unemployment rate has shot up to the highest level since late 2021, when Sydney and Melbourne were emerging from Covid lockdowns. The jobless rate of 4.3 per cent in June was the highest since November 2021, with 33,600 people losing their jobs and boosting the prospect of an August rate cut. This occurred as the number of full-time jobs fell by 38,000 while 40,000 part-time jobs were created, signalling a sharp drop in working hours. Canberra, the home of federal public servants, had Australia's lowest jobless rate of 3.6 per cent. This was a result of federal government spending hitting the highest level since 1986 outside of the pandemic. Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said public sector job growth was holding up the labour market as private sector demand for labour weakened. 'For over a year, there has been negligible job growth in the private market sector, with government-supported employment in the public and non-market sectors doing the heavy lifting,' he said. 'A rise in unemployment to its highest level since the pandemic points to the impact that our weak private sector is having on the labour market. 'With the private market sector accounting for two-thirds of employment in Australia, it was inevitable that its sustained weakness would eventually spill over to the broader labour market. It appears this problem is now coming home to roost.' Unemployment was higher than average in New South Wales and Victoria where migrant numbers are highest. 'Excessive migration has played a significant role in pummelling Australia's economic productivity,' Institute of Public Affairs deputy executive director Daniel Wild said. 'It has created extended periods of negative per capita economic growth, and exacerbated the housing and rental crises. Australia's unemployment rate also rose for the first time since December even though the Reserve Bank had cut interest rates in February and May. The latest jobless data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is also worse than the RBA was forecasting in its May statement on monetary policy, with the 4.3 per cent figure slightly higher than the 4.2 per cent level it had predicted. The bad news on the labour market could make the Reserve Bank more inclined to cut rates on August 12 should upcoming June quarter inflation data show a moderation in underlying price pressures. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said the fact that 34,000 more people are looking for work would make a rate cut next month more likely. 'While quarterly inflation data is still a week or so away, today's data will reinforce the weakness that is continuing within the private side of the Australian economy, and even by itself should be enough for the RBA to drop the cash rate at its next meeting,' he said. The RBA surprised financial markets earlier this month when it kept the cash rate on hold at 3.85 per cent. Governor Michele Bullock argued the underlying rate of 2.9 per cent was still too high in the March quarter, even though it is within the RBA's two to three per cent target. AMP economist My Bui said the fact just 2,000 new jobs were created, compared with market expectations of 20,000, suggested the labour market was weakening, with employers mainly hiring new part-time staff. 'Today's jobs data suggests a potentially broad weakening in the labour market,' she said. 'The composition of jobs gains was also weak.' This also suggested unemployment was now at a level less likely to fuel inflationary wage increases. 'We believe that the state of the Australian labour market is more balanced than tight and is not a source of inflationary pressures, warranting a rate cut in the August meeting,' Ms Bui said. AMP is expecting the RBA to cut rates in August, November, February and May, which would take the cash rate down to 2.85 per cent for the first time since December 2022. That is slightly more optimistic than the futures market pricing for a 3.1 per cent cash rate by early next year. Victoria was by far Australia's worst performing labour market with the highest jobless rate of 4.6 per cent, even though Melbourne receives a large share of overseas migration. New South Wales and South Australia had higher-than-average jobless rates of 4.4 per cent. Queensland and Western Australia had below-average rates of 4.1 per cent. The Australian Capital Territory, the home of federal public servants in Canberra, had the lowest jobless rate of 3.6 per cent, which was better than Tasmania's 3.8 per cent level and the Northern Territory's 3.9 per cent. National unemployment has risen despite rapid population growth, with 447,620 migrants moving to Australia on a permanent and long-term basis in the year to May. This was 33.6 per cent higher than the 335,000 level Treasury forecast for the 2024-25 financial year that ended in June.
SBS Australia
6 days ago
- Business
- SBS Australia
Jobless rate rises to highest level since 2021 as number of unemployed Australians jumps
The jobless rate has risen to 4.3 per cent — its highest rate since 2021 — surpassing expectations as the number of unemployed Australians jumped. Financial markets had expected the rate to remain steady at 4.1 per cent in June, but there was a nearly 34,000 increase in people without work, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Employment rose by 2,000, up 2 per cent compared to the same month last year, after part-time employment grew by 40,000 and full-time employment fell by 38,000 people. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will closely monitor the labour market before its next monetary policy meeting in August, NAB's head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said. "The focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," Spence said "The timing of [rate] cuts is not super important. It's more about, where do they end up?" Most economists had pencilled in a 0.25 per cent cut on the back of slowing inflation growth. Spence still expected the jobless rate to climb to 4.4 per cent by the end of 2025, but said economic indicators point to the labour market still being in a strong position. RBA said in its latest monetary policy decision that labour market conditions remained tight. "Measures of labour under-utilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. "Alternatively, labour market outcomes may prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators."
Bloomberg
7 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Collins Advocates Actively Patient Policy Approach
CC-Transcript 00:00Clearly uncertainty remains elevated, pulling together the many types of data and the analyses that my staff and I examine. My expectation is that tariffs will boost inflation over the second half of this year, while the extent of the increase remains uncertain. It seems likely that core PC inflation will be in the vicinity of 3%, perhaps by year's end before resuming its decline. And concerning the labour market side of our mandate. Tariffs should slow demand and hiring, but not necessarily by a large amount. Of course there are risks to this baseline outlook and I do not rule out scenarios with larger or more persistent effects from tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty, or I don't rule out scenarios in which the effects are more muted. Calibrating appropriate policy in this context is challenging, but continued overall, solid economic conditions enable the Fed to take the time to carefully assess the wide range of incoming data. So in my view, what I call an actively patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time. For YouLive TV
Free Malaysia Today
14-07-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
UK labour market cooled rapidly in June
The Bank of England is expected to cut rates next month for the fifth time since last August. (AP pic) LONDON : Britain's labour market cooled sharply and the number of people available for work jumped at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to data that is likely to back up the Bank of England's (BoE) plan to stay on its interest rate-cutting path. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and accountants KPMG said today that their index of staff availability rose to 66.1 in June from 63.3 in May, the highest reading since November 2020. A reading above 50 represents growth. The survey is watched by BoE officials, who are increasingly relying on unofficial gauges of the labour market because of problems with some official data. The BoE is expected to cut rates next month for the fifth time since last August. Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with the Times published late yesterday that the BoE was sticking to its gradual and careful approach to cutting rates as it juggled the drop in employment with still-high inflation. 'If we saw the slack opening up much more quickly, that would lead us to a different conclusion,' he said. Only the pandemic, the global financial crisis of 2008-09 and the immediate aftermath of the Sept 11 attacks in the US have resulted in faster growth in job market slack in the REC and KPMG report. They said the latest readings reflected unusually high levels of uncertainty rather than a sudden downturn in Britain's economy. 'Ongoing geopolitical turbulence and the threat of rising costs, alongside the promise of technology efficiencies, mean companies continue to wait and see with their hiring,' said Jon Holt, group chief executive at KPMG. Starting pay for new recruits and demand for staff cooled, adding to signs that the labour market is losing momentum. Figures due out from the Office for National Statistics on Thursday are expected to show a similar slowdown in pay growth. British economic growth contracted unexpectedly in May, according to official data published last week. 'While US President Donald Trump remains unpredictable on his approach to trade tariffs, last month's publication of the British government's industrial strategy might increase certainty among companies' hiring plans,' Holt said.
